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Who Will Gain Bitcoin’s Favor in the 2024 Presidential Election?

What a difference one presidential mandate makes, 35,064 little hours. You see, I didn’t ask how the outcome of the 2024 presidential election would impact the Bitcoin price.

This time, the tables have turned. Bitcoin has become a legit voter. Its voting power is undeniable. If one golden retriever can influence the second presidential debate, then imagine what the Bitcoin voting machine can do.

Photos: Tarquin/X

This story is unbiased because I don’t have a horse in this race. My dreams of the first true crypto president died when I wrote A Requiem for John David McAfee. But, in the meantime, you can hardly find someone who is referring to the crypto voters as ‘so-called,’ although the quotation marks are still being used.

What About CryptoBros? Where Their Money Goes?

According to an analysis by Public Citizen, nearly half of all corporate money during this election cycle is coming from the crypto industry. Data provided to The New Republic from Open Secrets adds some staggering details: Crypto companies have spent over $121 million to sway elections during this cycle. By comparison, since the Citizens United ruling in 2010, the fossil fuel industry has collectively spent $176 million over 14 years of election cycles.

You can look at these numbers and call it a day because you believe you know how the whole election game is going to play (out). But, these aren’t the only numbers worthy of our attention. What about the Bitcoin price history? It speaks volumes, doesn’t it?

Trump already made a bold promise to turn the U.S. into the “crypto capital of the planet.” It seems that his NFT trading cards weren’t convincing enough. So, there’s more. He also plans to launch a crypto platform under the name World Liberty Financial, which will be run by his sons Eric and Donald Jr. That’s nice, but the timing is a bit very convenient.

His speech will come 50 days before Election Day, an extraordinary use of dwindling campaign time to promote a personal business. The Republican former president has long mixed his political and business interests and marketed sneakers, photo books and Trump-branded Bibles during his 2024 campaign.

The latest of Trump’s ‘pledges of crypto allegiance,’ most definitely not the last, “have begun to rattle some of Trump’s allies within the crypto world. They’re warning that his family should shelve a project that they say creates unnecessary political risks and reflects poorly on the industry. The drama illustrates the risks associated with Trump’s growing embrace of the crypto community, which he’s promised to give a sweeping set of supportive policies if elected. Government watchdogs have also warned the intertwining of politics, policy and the Trump family business poses new conflict of interest.”

It would be wrong to think that the CryptoBros are still labeling the Biden administration as being unfriendly to the industry. Yes, there were some troubles in a Democratic crypto paradise when “the Security and Exchange Commission’s (SEC’s) crackdown on the industry began about two years ago, following the collapse of FTX, the world’s third-largest crypto exchange at the time. The SEC responded by hitting top crypto firms with a wave of lawsuits, accusing them of bypassing fundamental investor protections.”

You should know that “in August, industry executives met with Harris’s team in a conference call organized by Representative Ro Khanna, who has received nearly $250,000 in political donations from industry; only Gillibrand has received more cash from crypto, according to data provided to TNR from Open Secrets. Harris has been endorsed by Ron Conway and Chris Larsen, the co-founder of Ripple.”

Let’s Stay on Bitcoin’s Path and Do The Math

It’s easy to go astray when analyzing crypto’s role in the 2024 presidential election. Bitcoin isn’t the only crypto elephant in the election room, but it’s the biggest and most influential by far. So, let’s stick to it.

All predictions and news headlines are wild and contradictory at the same time. That’s how you end up with a headline like this: “A Trump victory could send bitcoin to $125,000, but new records are likely no matter who wins election, says Standard Chartered.” But then, almost at the same time, you get hit by this one: “Bitcoin price fell as the presidential debate began. The price of bitcoin began falling during the U.S. presidential debate Tuesday night, losing almost 4% by the time it hit a low Wednesday morning.”

Then, there’s a respectably influential community, I like to call “regardless investors.” Some of them made these very strong “regardless” arguments, such as this one:

“Do I think we’ll be in the six figures by 2025? Almost certainly. Do I think we’ll be in the six figures regardless of who wins? Almost certainly,” said Steven Lubka, head of private clients and family offices at Swan Bitcoin. “Bitcoin has always been an investment that is rooted more in the fiscal and monetary profile of countries, sovereigns and the United States. Neither candidate changes that.”

I also stumble upon another one that wants to make sure that neither candidate really means neither:

“Fears that a Kamala Harris presidency would somehow limit the price of bitcoin or drive it lower are overblown,” said James Davies, co-founder at crypto trading platform Crypto Valley Exchange. “Some of our communities … have become echo chambers and are convinced the sky will fall if one side or the other wins. The truth is that the market is robust, not centered on the U.S., and hasn’t reacted negatively to major events from either side.”

So, Bitcoin has no reason to be restless because of “regardless?” Right? Well, it’s not that simple.

Bitcoin, Do Not Worry About Elections, Beware of Emotions!

It would be naive to think that the crypto community is monolithic when it comes to politics, including its biggest Bitcoin tribe. “Politico” is warning us about “crypto’s civil war over the 2024 elections:”

Democratic crypto lobbyists, executives and investors say the industry is at risk of leaning too far right as its leaders come out in force for GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, who is promising policies that would boost digital asset firms. Their Republican counterparts say engaging with Democratic nominee Kamala Harris and backing her party’s down-ballot candidates risks isolating long-time allies in the GOP, with little to no guarantee it will pay off.

Perhaps, it would’ve been better for Bitcoin to stay away from this presidential election cycle, but with so much money already involved, so many promises already given, and expectations sky-high, I’m afraid it’s too late. What’s even worse, I’m afraid that the Bitcoin community will never be the same after the 47th President of the United States is officially inaugurated.

It’s not the “crypto civil war” that I’m worried about, but the endless blaming game if the Bitcoin price stops climbing up after January 2025. So far, one thing about Bitcoin has always been true, it’s neither red nor blue. The 2024 presidential election can change that for good.