The US intelligence community expects that Russian, Iranian, and Chinese influence operations on the US presidential elections will most likely intensify after voting ends, especially in swing states.
“Foreign actors almost certainly will see the period between polls closing and the certification of official results as on opening to generate disinformation about election integrity […] We assess they would most likely concentrate on states and races consistently identified as too close to call”
US National Intelligence Council, “Foreign Threats to US Elections After Voting Ends in 2024,” October 2024
According to a joint statement published on Monday by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI), the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), and the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA):
Foreign adversaries are currently conducting “influence operations intended to undermine public confidence in the integrity of US elections and stoke divisions among Americans,” and US spy agencies expect “these activities will intensify through election day and in the coming weeks, and that foreign influence narratives will focus on swing states.”
This is the same intelligence community that has overthrown over dozen governments, that pressured big tech companies into censorship, that dismissed the Hunter Biden laptop story as having all the hallmarks of Russian disinformation campaign, and that claimed the 2020 election was the “most secure in American history.”
“China, Iran, and Russia or Russian-affiliated actors have the technical capability to access some US election-related networks and systems.
US National Intelligence Council, “Foreign Threats to US Elections After Voting Ends in 2024,” October 2024
“That said, we assess foreign actors will probably refrain from disruptive attacks that seek to alter vote counts because they almost certainly would not be able to tangibly impact the outcome of the federal election without detection; such activity would carry a risk of retaliation, and there is no indication they attempted such attacks during the past two election cycles”
Now, the US spy apparatus claims that “Russia is the most active threat” with Russian-linked influence actors manufacturing videos and fake articles to undermine the legitimacy of the election and instill fear in voters.
They anticipate that “Russian actors will release additional manufactured content with these themes through election day and in the days and weeks after polls close.”
With regards to Iranian influence, the joint statement says that “Iranian influence actors may also seek to create fake media content intended to suppress voting or stoke violence, as they have done in past election cycles.”
“Even after the polls close on Election Day, China, Iran, and Russia are likely to continue efforts to undermine US democracy, stoke societal unrest, and position their preferred candidates”
US National Intelligence Council, “Foreign Threats to US Elections After Voting Ends in 2024,” October 2024
In October, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines declassified report by the National Intelligence Council called “Foreign Threats to US Elections After Voting Ends in 2024” in which the intelligence community asserted, “This year China, Iran, and Russia are better prepared to exploit opportunities to exert influence in the US general election after the polls close on Election Day.”
The declassified report assesses that China, Russia, and Iran will likely conduct “information operations after Election Day until the culmination of the process on Inauguration Day,” and that “They might also consider stoking unrest and conducting localized cyber operations to disrupt election infrastructure.”
“Foreign adversaries will almost certainly conduct information operations after voting ends to create uncertainty and undermine the legitimacy of the election process”
US National Intelligence Council, “Foreign Threats to US Elections After Voting Ends in 2024,” October 2024
“They probably will be quick to create false narratives or amplify content they think will create confusion and friction about the election process, as they did after the presidential election in 2020, including the breach of the US Capitol”
US National Intelligence Council, “Foreign Threats to US Elections After Voting Ends in 2024,” October 2024
On the cyber front, the report acknowledges that foreign adversaries have the capability to hack election systems, but they probably wouldn’t do that for fear of retaliation.
Instead, the report says, “Some actors may use generative AI or other tools to post fake election results or create voice or video to report unofficial results, even though they will be debunked by official results.
“Voice cloning or cutting into livestreams with AI-manipulated content would amplify concerns about the tabulation process.”
“China, Iran, and Russia capitalized on the events of 6 January 2021 to denigrate the US political system, though we have no indication any foreign actor was involved in planning or executing the siege”
US National Intelligence Council, “Foreign Threats to US Elections After Voting Ends in 2024,” October 2024
“Foreign actors may perceive a window of opportunity to push disinformation or foment or amplify protests and physical threats during the period between certification and the joint session of Congress to count electoral votes on 6 January”
US National Intelligence Council, “Foreign Threats to US Elections After Voting Ends in 2024,” October 2024
It is the modus operandi of the intelligence community to lie, cheat, and steal.
Everything the US spy apparatus accuses other nations of doing, it also does itself.
In February, 2014, journalist Glenn Greenwald published “The Art of Deception: Training for Online Covert Operations,” which was a training manual used by the British spy agency, GCHQ, and shared with the rest of the Five Eyes alliance, which consists of the US, UK, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand.
The GCHQ’s Joint Threat Research Intelligence Group (JTRIG) playbook lists false flags, infiltration, and disruption among its many tactics of deception.
JTRIG’s “Online Covert Actions” include deploying the 4 D’s — Deny, Disrupt, Degrade, Deceive — while “using online techniques to make something happen in the real or cyber world” through both influence operations and technical disruption.
The declassified National Intelligence Council report from October states:
“We assess foreign actors are positioned to use cyber operations and espionage to sow doubt about the integrity of the election and collect data […]
“In particular, actors might seek to disrupt or alter public-facing state government and news websites to promote confusion about election results.”
Is this a case of the pot calling the kettle black?
The report goes on to state that after January 6 and towards the coming inauguration, “Adversaries’ efforts to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power probably would hinge on information operations introduced in earlier phases of the process that succeeded in fomenting or amplifying lingering protests or physical threats to the inauguration ceremony itself.
“If protests persist in this period, foreign actors are likely to further capitalize on the opportunity to denigrate the US political system and fan protests — as they did in the 2020 election cycle — [REDACTED].”
The US intelligence community warns that adversaries are conducting the exact same types of influence campaigns it conducts itself.
Which is the biggest threat to election integrity, foreign interference or domestic?
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